درباره انديشکده آينده نگر ايرانسکوپ
سام قندچي
About Iranscope Futurist Think Tank
سام قندچي
About Iranscope Futurist Think Tank
ايرانسکوپ انديشکده اي است که کا ر بر روي پروژه هاي مختلفي را در عرصه هاي انديشه آينده نگري، حقوق بشر، سکولاريسم، ترقي، گلوباليسم، عدالت اجتماعي، صلح، دموکراسي، و آزادي با تمرکز برروي سفر ايران در قرن بيست و يکم، تسهيل ميکند. تحقيقات انجام شده ممکن است برروي فرهنگ، مسائل زنان و گروه بندي هاي مختلف اجتماعي، مذهبي و اتنيکي جامعه، اقتصاد، فلسفه، مذهب، علم، هنر، تکنولوژي، سياست، نافرماني مدني، جامعه شناسي، تاريخ، يا جنبه هاي ديگر زندگي، تأکيد داشته باد.
از آنجا که توسعه در ايران امروز از طغيان جنبش جهاني اسلامگرائي غير قابل تفکيک است، تم اصلي تحقيقات ما درباره راههائي است که ميتوان با اسلامگرائي مواجه شد و آلترناتيو هاي قابل دسترس نه تنها براي ايران و ايرانيان بلکه براي کل جهان در اين مقطع تاريخي، مورد تتبع قرار ميگيرند.
اسلامگرائي به ايران محدود نيست. اين جنبش واپسگرا حتي باعث نااميدي و بدبيني در ميان جوانان در غرب شده است. جوانان در مواردي هر گونه خوش بيني به آينده را از دست داده و در برابر جنايات بنيادگرائي و مشخصاً بنيادگرائي اسلامي احساس درماندگي ميکنند، تأثيري که بويژه پس از فاجعه 11 سپتامبر 2001 که در قلب غرب بوقوع پيوست، کاملاً قابل رؤيت است.
تمدن غرب امروزه تمدني سالخورده است که بار بغرنجي خود را آنگونه که برخي صاحب نظران جديد مدتي است خاطر نشان کرده اند، با خود حمل ميکند. اين واقعيت به اين معني است که تمدن غرب مقادير متنابهي از منابع و انرژي خود را تنها براي حفظ تعهدات موجودش، به مصرف ميرساند. نوشداروي بنيادگرايان ارائه نوعي زندگي بي آلايش است که در واقع رهائي از بار مسؤليت سنگين نگهداري اين سيستم بغرنج را براي آنهائي که به قولهاي کاذب رجعت به عصر طلائي دنياي قديم و پاسخ هاي ساده براي مشقات دنياي امروز باور دارند، وعده ميدهد.
بنيادگرائي خود را نه تنها در کشورهاي عقب مانده بلکه حتي در آمريکا که با بدهي ملي فزاينده روبرو است و 47 ميليون نفر از مردم فاقد بيمه بهداشت هستند و حقوق بازنشستگي براي نسل آينده در زير علامت سؤال قرار دارد، بمثابه يک آلترناتيو جهت برآوردن انتظاراتي که شهروندان از دولت دارند، نشان ميدهد.
بنظر ميرسد تعداد زيادي از انديشکده ها در آمريکا سالهاست که برروي مسأله اسلامگرائي کار کرده اند معهذا به سختي بشود توصيه ها يا ايده هائي از طرف آنها يافت که بتوان گفت راه کاري است براي آنکه با اين پديده چه بايد کرد.
من خود در کتابم تحت عنوان «ايران آينده نگر» با عنوان دوم «آينده نگري در برابر تروريسم» سعي کردم نشان دهم که چرا ترويج آينده نگري بمثابه آلترناتيوي در برابر اسلامگرائي راه کار در خاورميانه و مشخصاً در ايران است.
با اين وجود، کتابم از کاري که توصيه هاي مشخص درباره آنکه با اسلامگرائي چه کار ميشود کرد داشته باشد يعني از فرموله کردن راه حل هاي مشخص عملي، يعني کاري که از يک انديشکده انتظار ميرود، بسيار فاصله داشت. اگر کسي به اي ئي آي و ديگر انديشکده هاي معروف نگاهي بياندازد که مدت مديدي است برروي اين موضوع کار ميکنند، آنها حتي در وضع بدتري هستند چرا که حتي از داشتن يک ديدگاه عمومي که در کتاب «ايران آينده نگر» ارائه شده نيز برخوردار نيستند.
همه آنچه آن انديشکده ها درباره اسلامگرائي نوشته اند در واقع از مدل قديمي که براي درک کمونيسم و در حد کوچکتري براي درک فاشيسم تدوين شده اند، استفاده کرده اند، در نتيحه کارشان به ارائه راه کارهاي مقطعي که بيشتر بخاطر عدم تطابق با واقعيت کنوني ناموفق هستند، ختم شده است، چرا که بر ديدگاهي استوارند که مدل کهنه شده اي از پديده ديگري است که ابداً بيانگر اسلامگرائي نيست.
آنها استراتژي هاي حقوق بشر را براي از ميدان به در کردن اسلامگرايان توصيه ميکنند در صورتيکه حکمرانان اسلامگرا در مقايسه با حاکمان کمونيست، با اکثريت مردم کشور تحت حاکميتشان اشتراک ايدئولوژي دارند و در نتيجه هر طرحي فاقد سکولاريسم، از عهده پاسخگوئي به اين واقعيت اسلامگرائي موجود، عاجز است.
از سوي ديگر، با سقوط شوروي، اتوپي کمونيسم نيز فروريخت و در نتيجه آنهائي که در جستجوي يک اتوپي بمثابه راه حلي براي معضلات جهان ميباشند، از اتوپي هاي سکولار 150 سال گذشته دست شسته اند. اين واقعيت نيز خود لطمه بزرگي به سکولاريسم زده است که بسياري انواع آرماني آن را ناخوشايند کرده است.
به اين طريق در جستجو براي يافتن پاسخ هاي حاضر و آماده به معضلات عصر کنوني، بسياري کسان اتوپي هاي مذهبي را بعنوان راهي براي روياروئي با مشقات نظم کنوني جهان و ساختارهاي موجود آن که مورد انزجارشان است، برگزيده اند، دورنمائي که نوعي تجديد حيات جنگ هاي صليبي را با خود آورده است، و گوئي نبردهاي تازه براي بيت المقدس آغاز شده است.
تحليل بالا توضيح نميدهد که در ارتباط با رشد آينده اسلامگرائي چه ميشود انتظار داشت يا که با آن چگونه بايستي مواجه شد ولي نشان ميدهد که زمينه تجديد حيات بنياد گرائي اسلامي در قرن بيست و يکم چيست و با اين ديدگاه ميتوان براي پاسخ به سؤالات مشخص ذکر شده، اقدام کرد.
ما ميدانيم که اولين جنگ هاي صليبي متوقف نشدند و با جنگهاي صليبي ديگري دنبال شدند. سؤال اين است که آيا جنگ هاي صليبي کنوني با جنگ هاي ضعيف تر يا قوي تري دنبال خواهند شد. آنچه در افغانستان شاهدش بوديم شکست اتوپي شوروي بدست بنيادگرائي طالبان بود و بنظر ميرسد دموکراسي غربي نيز توسط طالبان در افغانستان در چالش جدي است، بطوري که طالبان درحال بازگشت به قدرت است، اين بار نه تنها از طريق جنگ بلکه همچنين از طريق مذاکرات صلح با دولت افغانستان، و نيز از طريق جنگ و مذاکرات صلح با دولت پاکستان.
در غرب نه تنها معمول شدن دادگاه هاي شرع در کانادا مسأله ساز بوده است بلکه موفقيت هاي اسلامگرايان در بريتانيا در شاخه قضائي دولت تا حدي بوده است که اسقف کانتربري در دفاع از برسميت شناختن قوانين شرع اسلام سخن گفته است حرکتي که واقعاً سکولاريسم را در جامعه اي با چنان قدمت سنت سکولار در قوه قضائيه، به زير سؤال ميبرد و نشان ميدهد که تأثير اسلامگرائي در جهان را نميشود فقط محدود به کشورهاي در حال توسعه خاورميانه نظير ايران ديد.
نياز کار برروي مسائل اقتصادي مرتبط به آزادي اجتماعي براي تلاشهاي ما جهت پاسخ دادن به ديناميسم پيروزي هاي اسلامگرايان، غير قابل انکار است. چنين مطالعاتي قادر خواهد بود، راه حل هاي آلترناتيو براي مقابله با نوشداروهاي ارائه شده توسط اسلامگرايان را تدوين کند، چرا که بيشتر و بيشتر آشکار ميشود آنها براي تقسيم مجدد جهان توجه خود را برروي نابرابري هاي اجتماعي در جهان متمرکز کرده اند. اين برخورد نه تنها از سوي جمهوري اسلامي ايران با مانورهاي بين المللي اش در عراق و فلسطين دنبال ميشود بلکه اين موضوعي است که استراتژي القاعده سالهاست بر روي آن متکي بوده است.
به اميد جمهوری آينده نگر، فدرال، دموکراتيک، و سکولار در ايران
سام قندچي، ناشر و سردبير
ايرانسکوپ
http://www.iranscope.com/
13 ارديبهشت 1387
May 2, 2008
ايميل: iranscope@hotmail.com
تلفن: 925 201 2100 X3858
فکس: 518 687 9813
بلاگ: http://iranscope.blogspot.com/
کتاب ايران آينده نگر: http://www.ghandchi.com/500-FuturistIran.htm
متن نوشتار به زبان انگليسي
http://www.ghandchi.com/514-AboutIranscopeEng.htm
About Iranscope Futurist Think Tank
Sam Ghandchi
http://www.ghandchi.com/514-AboutIranscope-plus.htm
Iranscope is a think tank focused on Iran’s journey through the 21st Century facilitating work on a broad range of projects encompassing Futuristic Thinking, Human Rights, Secularism, Progress, Globalization, Social Justice, Peace, Democracy, and Freedom in Iran. The studies may emphasize Culture, Issues of Women and Various Social, Religious and Ethnic Groups, Economics, Philosophy, Religion, Science, Art, Technology, Politics, Civil Disobedience, Sociology, History, or other aspects of life.
Since development in today’s Iran is inseparable from the turbulence of world movement of Islamism, the central theme of our research is about the ways to deal with Islamism and the alternatives that are available not only for Iran and Iranians but for the world in the current juncture of history.
Islamism is not limited to Iran. This retrogressive movement is even causing pessimism among the youth in the West. The youth is at times dropping optimism in the future when feeling helpless in face of the onslaught of fundamentalism, and specifically the Islamic fundamentalism, which has made its impact felt, especially since Sept 11th, 2001, in the very own backyards of the West.The Western civilization is now an old civilization burdened with the weight of its own complexity as some new thinkers have noted for some time. This means the Western civilization is spending a lot of its resources and energy just to sustain itself. A fundamentalist panacea offers simplicity by unloading the burden of the maintenance of this complex system, for those believing in the pseudo-promises of the return to an old golden order of the world, offering easy answers for all hardships of the today’s world.
Not only in backward countries, fundamentalism even offers itself as an alternative in the U.S., where the government has a hard time to fulfill the commitments it has made to its citizens, with staggering national debt in the U.S., lack of health care for over 47 million people, and the uncertainty of social security benefits for the future generation.
It seems like a huge number of think tanks in the U.S. have been working on the same issue of Islamism, nevertheless, they hardly offer any good recommendations or ideas as to what to do with it.My own book Futurist Iran, had the subtitle of “Futurism versus Terrorism” where I had tried to show why promoting futurism as an alternative to Islamism, is the way to go in the Middle East and specifically in Iran.Nonetheless, my book is far from providing specific recommendations about how to deal with Islamism, defining concrete solutions, a task which is expected from a think tank. If one looks at AEI and other famous think tanks that have been working on this topic for a long time, they are not even in a better position as they show even an absence of the broad vision one can find in the Futurist Iran book.
All other think tanks have done about Islamism were modeled after an old understanding of Communism and to a lesser degree Fascism, thus they ended up offering ad hoc advice which mostly fails to relate to the current reality because they are based on an outdated vision which is hardly descriptive of Islamism.
They propose human rights strategies to debunk the Islamists, whereas Islamist rulers in contrast to Communist rulers share their ideology with the majority of people they rule and anything short of secularism fails to address this reality. On the other hand, with the fall of Soviet Union, the fall of Communist utopia collapsed as well, and thus those who are looking for a utopia as a cure for the problems of the world, gave up on secular utopias of the last 150 years. This reality has also damaged secularism itself making many idealistic versions of it unappealing.
Therefore in search for ready-made answers to the dilemma of our times, many have picked up religious utopias as their way of dealing with the predicament of a world order and its related social structures which they resent, a perspective that has shaped a revival of Crusades as if we are having new fights for Jerusalem.The above analysis does not explain what to expect from Islamism's future growth or how to deal with it, but it shows the background to the revival of Islamic Fundamentalism in the 21st Century and with that perspective one can try to respond to the concrete issues that were noted.We know the first Crusades did not stop and were followed by new ones. The question is whether the new Crusades will subside or will be followed by stronger or weaker crusades. What have witnessed in Afghanistan was the defeat of Soviet Utopia by the Taliban's Fundamentalism and it seems like the Western Democracy is also being seriously challenged by the Taliban in Afghanistan, as we see the Taliban coming back to power, this time through not only through war but even by peace negotiations with Afghan government, as well as fighting and peace negotiations with Pakistan's government.In the West, not only the introduction of Sharia courts in Canada has been problematic but successes of Islamists in the UK in the judicial branch to the point of Bishop of Canterbury asking for the recognition of Sharia law are questioning secularism in a society with such a long history of secular tradition and show the impact of Islamism in the world cannot be viewed as limited to developing countries of the Middle East including Iran.Working on economic issues of social freedom is critical to our endeavors to answer the dynamics of the successes of Islamists. Such a study is the way to come up with alternative solutions to the panaceas offered by the Islamists, as it is more and more clear that their focus is on social inequalities in the world to repartition the world. This is not only the approach of Islamic Republic of Iran with its international maneuvers in Iraq and Palestine but this is also true about Al-Qaida’s global strategy.
Hoping for a Federal, Democratic, and Secular Futurist Republic in Iran,
Sam Ghandchi, Publisher/EditorIRANSCOPEhttp://www.iranscope.com/
May 2, 2008
Email: iranscope@hotmail.com
Tel: 925 201 2100 X3858
Fax: 518 687 9813
Blog: http://iranscope.blogspot.com/
Futurist Iran Book: http://www.ghandchi.com/500-FuturistIranEng.htm
Text in Persian
http://www.ghandchi.com/514-AboutIranscope.htm
Sam Ghandchi
http://www.ghandchi.com/514-AboutIranscope-plus.htm
Iranscope is a think tank focused on Iran’s journey through the 21st Century facilitating work on a broad range of projects encompassing Futuristic Thinking, Human Rights, Secularism, Progress, Globalization, Social Justice, Peace, Democracy, and Freedom in Iran. The studies may emphasize Culture, Issues of Women and Various Social, Religious and Ethnic Groups, Economics, Philosophy, Religion, Science, Art, Technology, Politics, Civil Disobedience, Sociology, History, or other aspects of life.
Since development in today’s Iran is inseparable from the turbulence of world movement of Islamism, the central theme of our research is about the ways to deal with Islamism and the alternatives that are available not only for Iran and Iranians but for the world in the current juncture of history.
Islamism is not limited to Iran. This retrogressive movement is even causing pessimism among the youth in the West. The youth is at times dropping optimism in the future when feeling helpless in face of the onslaught of fundamentalism, and specifically the Islamic fundamentalism, which has made its impact felt, especially since Sept 11th, 2001, in the very own backyards of the West.The Western civilization is now an old civilization burdened with the weight of its own complexity as some new thinkers have noted for some time. This means the Western civilization is spending a lot of its resources and energy just to sustain itself. A fundamentalist panacea offers simplicity by unloading the burden of the maintenance of this complex system, for those believing in the pseudo-promises of the return to an old golden order of the world, offering easy answers for all hardships of the today’s world.
Not only in backward countries, fundamentalism even offers itself as an alternative in the U.S., where the government has a hard time to fulfill the commitments it has made to its citizens, with staggering national debt in the U.S., lack of health care for over 47 million people, and the uncertainty of social security benefits for the future generation.
It seems like a huge number of think tanks in the U.S. have been working on the same issue of Islamism, nevertheless, they hardly offer any good recommendations or ideas as to what to do with it.My own book Futurist Iran, had the subtitle of “Futurism versus Terrorism” where I had tried to show why promoting futurism as an alternative to Islamism, is the way to go in the Middle East and specifically in Iran.Nonetheless, my book is far from providing specific recommendations about how to deal with Islamism, defining concrete solutions, a task which is expected from a think tank. If one looks at AEI and other famous think tanks that have been working on this topic for a long time, they are not even in a better position as they show even an absence of the broad vision one can find in the Futurist Iran book.
All other think tanks have done about Islamism were modeled after an old understanding of Communism and to a lesser degree Fascism, thus they ended up offering ad hoc advice which mostly fails to relate to the current reality because they are based on an outdated vision which is hardly descriptive of Islamism.
They propose human rights strategies to debunk the Islamists, whereas Islamist rulers in contrast to Communist rulers share their ideology with the majority of people they rule and anything short of secularism fails to address this reality. On the other hand, with the fall of Soviet Union, the fall of Communist utopia collapsed as well, and thus those who are looking for a utopia as a cure for the problems of the world, gave up on secular utopias of the last 150 years. This reality has also damaged secularism itself making many idealistic versions of it unappealing.
Therefore in search for ready-made answers to the dilemma of our times, many have picked up religious utopias as their way of dealing with the predicament of a world order and its related social structures which they resent, a perspective that has shaped a revival of Crusades as if we are having new fights for Jerusalem.The above analysis does not explain what to expect from Islamism's future growth or how to deal with it, but it shows the background to the revival of Islamic Fundamentalism in the 21st Century and with that perspective one can try to respond to the concrete issues that were noted.We know the first Crusades did not stop and were followed by new ones. The question is whether the new Crusades will subside or will be followed by stronger or weaker crusades. What have witnessed in Afghanistan was the defeat of Soviet Utopia by the Taliban's Fundamentalism and it seems like the Western Democracy is also being seriously challenged by the Taliban in Afghanistan, as we see the Taliban coming back to power, this time through not only through war but even by peace negotiations with Afghan government, as well as fighting and peace negotiations with Pakistan's government.In the West, not only the introduction of Sharia courts in Canada has been problematic but successes of Islamists in the UK in the judicial branch to the point of Bishop of Canterbury asking for the recognition of Sharia law are questioning secularism in a society with such a long history of secular tradition and show the impact of Islamism in the world cannot be viewed as limited to developing countries of the Middle East including Iran.Working on economic issues of social freedom is critical to our endeavors to answer the dynamics of the successes of Islamists. Such a study is the way to come up with alternative solutions to the panaceas offered by the Islamists, as it is more and more clear that their focus is on social inequalities in the world to repartition the world. This is not only the approach of Islamic Republic of Iran with its international maneuvers in Iraq and Palestine but this is also true about Al-Qaida’s global strategy.
Hoping for a Federal, Democratic, and Secular Futurist Republic in Iran,
Sam Ghandchi, Publisher/EditorIRANSCOPEhttp://www.iranscope.com/
May 2, 2008
Email: iranscope@hotmail.com
Tel: 925 201 2100 X3858
Fax: 518 687 9813
Blog: http://iranscope.blogspot.com/
Futurist Iran Book: http://www.ghandchi.com/500-FuturistIranEng.htm
Text in Persian
http://www.ghandchi.com/514-AboutIranscope.htm
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